Could the Surge be working?

I opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, but --At least from what I gather this last couple month, there are encouraging evidences that the surge is working* --or at least Al Qaeda is blundering and we're seizing the moment. They all point to evidences that the local Sunnis and Shiites are increasingly alienated by Al-Qaeda and Shiite Militias (This is key to counter-insurgency):

• Relations sour between Shiites and Iraq Militia (NYTimes)
  
• Observation of military strategy on the ground by people from the Brookings Institute (NYTimes)
  
• The most hopeful and latest note is Bin Laden lambasting his lieutenants for being too extreme! (CS Monitor)
  

Things are still exceedingly horrible and costly for Iraqis and Americans. (But, I'm even less convinced that immediate American withdrawal would be to the benefit of Iraqi or American interest.) The Onion satire summarize the latest condition pretty well.

* working means a trajectory to reduce Iraqi misery and withdraw troops without causing a tottering State to completely collapse. See Congo for what kind of complete misery Civil War, opportunistic neighbors, and rich resource can cause.